Minneapolis, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS63 KMPX 250941
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
341 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect along & north of I-94 for
  freezing drizzle. Potential for a glaze of ice to a few
  hundredths that could impact holiday travel.

- Gloomy weather continues with periods of fog, drizzle, and
  freezing drizzle through Christmas Day.

- Temperatures remain warm through Saturday, with an Arctic cold
  front resulting in a quick drop to below normal temperatures
  Sunday and Monday.

- Blustery northwest winds are likely Saturday night into
  Sunday as the cold front moves through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

A foggy & gloomy Christmas day is on tap across much of the region.
A dense fog has already spread across much of southern Minnesota
that has prompted a slight expansion in the Dense Fog Advisory.
Those headed out this morning may wish that you had a reindeer with
a glowing red nose to help guide you safely to your destination.
Some locations are experiencing freezing fog with temperatures in
the mid to upper 20s - this could lead to areas of slick travel in
addition to limited visibility. Please proceed with caution if you
must travel. While it wasn`t pretty - we`ll likely get our
"official" white Christmas at 12Z observation this morning.
Temperatures remain below freezing overnight and snow depths should
be at or above the 1" threshold.

Our dense fog advisory will expire at 9 am this morning but
it`ll remain a gloomy Christmas day. Low stratus currently
across S MN will build back northward into C & W MN and W WI by
mid to late morning. Forecast soundings continue to highlight a
saturated layer beneath the lowest few thousand feet and support
period of drizzle this afternoon & evening. Temperatures will
be key to whether a location observes regular drizzle or
freezing drizzle. Current thoughts are that a brief period of
freezing drizzle is possible for locations in the metro, but air
temperatures quickly warm above freezing. This could lead to
some slick travel - especially locations along & north of I-694
in the metro. Outside of the Twin Cities metro: north of I-94
will see temperatures warm slower & stay below freezing for
longer than locations to the south. This will support legitimate
icing potential. These locations can expect a glaze of ice up
to a tenth of an inch of ice in the worst case scenarios. Most
locations end up closer to the glaze with a few hundredths of
ice build up. We have coordinated with our neighboring WFOs to
issue a Winter Weather Advisory that`ll begin late afternoon in
W/C MN & this evening in W WI. The advisory will continue
through Friday morning. Reminder that untreated surfaces will
likely see a glaze of ice that is enough to impact local holiday
travel plans. The best signal for drizzle will be later this
evening through early Friday morning.

Temperatures will slowly warm throughout the next 24 hours.
Precipitation ends by daybreak as the clipper system responsible
moves into the southern Great Lakes. Friday & Saturday look very
warm by late December standards. Highs will be in the lower 40s with
low temperatures in around freezing Friday & Saturday night. While
we dry out, it`ll remain gloomy with mostly cloudy skies through the
weekend. Sunday`s high temperature will occur early Sunday morning
as a potent Arctic front will move through Sunday morning & usher in
a return to familiar Upper Midwest Winter temperatures. Temperatures
fall quickly during the day Sunday with lows near zero early Monday
morning. Northwest winds will be 15 to 25 mph sustained with gusts
up to 40 mph possible. Some models have wind gusts ~5 to 10 mph
stronger than current NBM forecast. This may require a future Wind
Advisory for Sunday.Apparent temperatures will be in the
10 to 20F below zero Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon,
which will be a festive reminder that it is still Winter in the
Upper Midwest. Temperatures will moderate towards normal values
to end the year. Highs will be in the upper 10s to low 20s with
lows in the single digits to low 10s. This is good news for
those of us who participate in outdoor Winter activities for
now. The lack of snow pack will limit how cold any future cold
snaps will get - until we regain new snow - something that`ll
wait until the new year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Clearing of the stratus moving south has started to put on the
breaks as it moves across the Twin Cities metro, so expecting it
to not get as far south as we were thinking at 00z and check up
just south of MSP. However, the results are similar, only RWF
and MKT remain in the murk this whole period, everyone else
will at least get to come up for air a little bit before stratus
comes slamming back in on Thursday. As for the stratus return,
with it remaining farther north than previously expected, we did
speed up the return of stratus 2 or 3 hours at every terminal.
We also continue to be pretty aggressive with dropping
visibilities from Thursday afternoon on, with DZ looking to be a
common occurrence. This could be problematic at STC, RNH, & EAU
who will all be hovering around freezing as the drizzle
invades.

KMSP...It looks like there will be just enough momentum on this
clearing to get it through MSP within the first hour of the TAF.
However, it won`t be far away and could be back as soon as 14z.
Looking at HRRR reflectivity forecast and using low returns as a
drizzle signal, you see that potential showing up as early as
20z. No matter how you slice it, we look to end Christmas in the
soup.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...IFR. Wind WNW 5 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts bcmg NW 10-15G25 kts late.
SUN...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SN. Wind NW 15-20G35 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST
     Friday for Benton-Douglas-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Sherburne-
     Stearns-Todd.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Friday for Anoka-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Washington.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Le Sueur-Martin-Nicollet-
     Redwood-Rice-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Watonwan.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Friday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk-St.
     Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG